Can the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s share price rally continue into FY25?  (2024)

Can the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s share price rally continue into FY25?

Our domestic large-cap funds have maintained an underweight position in the banks, and even though the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) was, for a time, our largest position, being underweight in the sector has cost relative performance thanks to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s share price rallying as much as 23 per cent year-to-date and 35 per cent last financial year.

Our reasoning is relatively straightforward; first, with each bank’s position in Australia’s banking oligopoly relatively stable – thanks in part to customer inertia and living on an island, and with each one constantly eyeing the others, we find their market shares and relative operating performances rarely vary much in absolute or relative terms. Therefore, trying to pick the short-term outperformance consistently successfully of one bank over the others has often proven to be a fool’s errand.

Secondly, and importantly, we have not identified a “change” trigger among the banks that justifies significant share price outperformance. Therefore, we do not believe the banks’ outperformance can be repeated in 2025. For the major banks, competition remains intense, especially for home loans, and underlying demand for home and business loans is subdued, reflecting moribund economic activity.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s FY24 cash earnings were higher than consensus analyst expectations, and pre-provisioning operating profit (PPOP) was in line with consensus estimates, driven by higher than anticipated net interest margin (NIM – more on that in a moment). Overall, the result was broadly in line with modest loan growth, expense growth of three per cent, and below-average bad debt expenses. The final ordinary dividend per share was 250 cents, 10 cents higher than analyst expectations and it takes the full-year dividend to $4.65, which is 3.3 per cent up on the previous year. Notably, the dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) will be done with no discount and will be offset by an on-market buyback.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s FY24 Common Equity Tier 1 capital (CET1) ratio, was 12.3 per cent and 19.1 per cent on an internationally comparable basis. CET1 is a capital measure that was introduced in 2014 as a protective precaution to head off another financial crisis. In the event of a crisis, equity is taken first from Tier 1, which includes liquid bank holdings such as cash and stock.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s resilience in maintaining its net interest margin (NIM) was a notable highlight in today’s results. However, there were some early warning signs, including a potential decline in asset quality, driven by expected pressures on real household disposable income, and a resurgence in mortgage competition.

For what it’s worth, your author believes we will sidestep a recession this year and the reported slump in consumption will stabilise.

From a valuation perspective, it’s interesting to observe that while the Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimates its market-implied cost of equity to be around 8 per cent (I note many share market investors are using lower rates to justify stock market valuations for much riskier companies). However, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia maintains an internal cost of capital hurdle at 10 per cent.

Investors are using lower rates to justify investing in the Commonwealth Bank of Australia at current prices. By lowering the discount rate, we can dream up a valuation for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia that is close to the price, but the company’s prospects aren’t as bright as many other companies also listed on the ASX. We view the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s valuation as reasonable but not cheap. Additionally, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is much higher than has been historically evident, even taking into account its status as the premier bank with the best economic business performance. As an aside we think analysts fretting over substantially rising bad debts (credit losses) are misguided – there’s plenty of room to cut rates quickly if animal spirits need to be stirred.

The Montgomery Fund and the Montgomery [Private] Fund owns shares Commonwealth Bank of Australia. This article was prepared 15 August 2024 with the information we have today, and our view may change. It does not constitute formal advice or professional investment advice. If you wish to Commonwealth Bank of Australia, you should seek financial advice.

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